Post by Ramen on Nov 21, 2014 18:50:40 GMT
First, the process. Executive orders can only be overturned one of two ways. First, Congress can repeal the law by passing legislation either reversing or contradicting the order. However, this bill has to go to the president and he would obviously veto it. The only option left to Congress is an override of the veto, and I don't think Republicans will get 3/4th majority to support that. Thus, Congress cannot practically do anything about it.
Second, the courts can rule the order unconstitutional. This is probably the route that Republicans will take, though I'm not sure how successful it will be. On its face, the order looks unconstitutional. But there is a long history of similar types of executive orders and I have to think the president cleared this with their legal people. At the very least, they're going to have a robust defense of the order if/when challenged. So most likely situation is Republicans will sue in the courts. Not knowing enough about the law on this, I have no idea how successful they'll be.
The politics of this, however, do not favor Republicans. While early polls show that a slight plurality oppose the use of executive actions, the policies themselves that are part of the executive order are rather popular. Pathway to citizenship polls in the 60-70% support range. Same for border security. And while people might *say* they oppose the executive order, public opinion is rarely moved by arcane issues of process. Most people want something done. They're not going to get caught up in the "emperor" language coming from GOP leadership today. Put simply, arguing over the process is a dead end. People don't care how something is accomplished (by and large); they care more that something gets done.
This is even more true given the threats from Republicans about how this could sink bipartisan agreements. The public perception of the GOP is obstructionist. This feeds into that perception even more. The GOP would be better off creating their own comprehensive reform legislation, passing it through the new Congress, and forcing Obama to either sign it or veto it. I suspect that the GOP is far too fractured right now to do that. One faction wants border security and nothing else. If the GOP leadership refuses to have votes on bills that do not have the majority of Republicans on board, that faction has a de facto veto over comprehensive reform. So Republicans are not likely to pass an alternative to Obama's new policy and, barring getting it overturned in the courts, are just going to feed into the obstructionist perception most people have of them.
This is going to hurt them even more among hispanic voters, especially if they continue with caustic rhetoric like we've seen the last few years. That makes it more difficult to win the presidency in 2016 and beyond because they're going to have to pick up at least 40% support from that group in future presidential years.
Put simply, the legislative process is probably closed to Republicans on this. They're not going to override a veto. The judicial process is probably their best bet and I have no idea how likely that is to succeed. However, the politics of this are very dangerous for the party and they need to consider their next steps extremely carefully moving forward. The public responds well to leadership - for the most part - and they do not respond at all to arguments over procedure. It is not going to matter very much that Obama did not have a congressional bill (I think that is unfortunate, myself). It is going to matter more that he did something and that the policies he enacted are popular.
Second, the courts can rule the order unconstitutional. This is probably the route that Republicans will take, though I'm not sure how successful it will be. On its face, the order looks unconstitutional. But there is a long history of similar types of executive orders and I have to think the president cleared this with their legal people. At the very least, they're going to have a robust defense of the order if/when challenged. So most likely situation is Republicans will sue in the courts. Not knowing enough about the law on this, I have no idea how successful they'll be.
The politics of this, however, do not favor Republicans. While early polls show that a slight plurality oppose the use of executive actions, the policies themselves that are part of the executive order are rather popular. Pathway to citizenship polls in the 60-70% support range. Same for border security. And while people might *say* they oppose the executive order, public opinion is rarely moved by arcane issues of process. Most people want something done. They're not going to get caught up in the "emperor" language coming from GOP leadership today. Put simply, arguing over the process is a dead end. People don't care how something is accomplished (by and large); they care more that something gets done.
This is even more true given the threats from Republicans about how this could sink bipartisan agreements. The public perception of the GOP is obstructionist. This feeds into that perception even more. The GOP would be better off creating their own comprehensive reform legislation, passing it through the new Congress, and forcing Obama to either sign it or veto it. I suspect that the GOP is far too fractured right now to do that. One faction wants border security and nothing else. If the GOP leadership refuses to have votes on bills that do not have the majority of Republicans on board, that faction has a de facto veto over comprehensive reform. So Republicans are not likely to pass an alternative to Obama's new policy and, barring getting it overturned in the courts, are just going to feed into the obstructionist perception most people have of them.
This is going to hurt them even more among hispanic voters, especially if they continue with caustic rhetoric like we've seen the last few years. That makes it more difficult to win the presidency in 2016 and beyond because they're going to have to pick up at least 40% support from that group in future presidential years.
Put simply, the legislative process is probably closed to Republicans on this. They're not going to override a veto. The judicial process is probably their best bet and I have no idea how likely that is to succeed. However, the politics of this are very dangerous for the party and they need to consider their next steps extremely carefully moving forward. The public responds well to leadership - for the most part - and they do not respond at all to arguments over procedure. It is not going to matter very much that Obama did not have a congressional bill (I think that is unfortunate, myself). It is going to matter more that he did something and that the policies he enacted are popular.