Post by Ramen on Oct 3, 2014 1:41:39 GMT
I was looking at the Senate maps for the next six years of upcoming elections - 2014, 2016, and 2018 - and noticed that majority control is likely to be a roller coaster ride for the foreseeable future.
First, the 2014 map:
It is looking like a Republican Senate majority is very possible after November. Republicans are virtually guaranteed to pick up seats in LA, WV, MT, and SD. They only need two additional seats for the majority. Of those, currents CO, AK, AR, IA, and KS are tossups. I would put money that they pick up the AR seat, but would also lean towards them losing the KS seat. Those are a wash. That leaves CO, AK, and IA. They need two of those three to gain the majority or, if they lose KS, could only pick up one of those and put the Independent in the position of deciding control. I suspect he would lean towards the D side, but it's not settled.
Moving on to 2016, however, we see that Republicans have a horrific electoral map:
Republicans are defending seats in PA, OH, IL, WI, NH, NC, and IA. Even if they have control after 2014, Democrats only need to pick up one or two of those to regain the majority. For their part, Democrats are not defending a single seat in a red state or a swing state. Other than Colorado, which during a presidential election is not likely to lean Republican, they're very likely to keep all of their seats. So the most likely situation after 2016 is a Democratic majority. It's doubtful that they take all of those seats, so a narrow Democratic majority is most likely.
Moving ahead to 2018 shows us that the map swings yet again agains the Democrats:
Only a few Republican seats are being defended, and almost all of those are in red states. Nevada is the exception, but it's not exactly blue. On the other hand, Democrats are defending seats in WV, VA, IN, FL, MT, ND, and MO. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016 (and if the economy isn't booming), then the likely result is yet another swing in majority control in the Senate, this time back to the Republicans.
From all of this, it seems that the most likely result for the next three election cycles will be swings in the majority back and forth. If Democrats can somehow manage to hold their majority this year and rack up a lot of gains in 2016, then that could create a large enough buffer to ward off the 2018 election, which would result in a consistent Democratic majority. But that's only if they can keep the Senate this year, and right now it's looking like they only have about a 50% chance of doing that.
First, the 2014 map:
It is looking like a Republican Senate majority is very possible after November. Republicans are virtually guaranteed to pick up seats in LA, WV, MT, and SD. They only need two additional seats for the majority. Of those, currents CO, AK, AR, IA, and KS are tossups. I would put money that they pick up the AR seat, but would also lean towards them losing the KS seat. Those are a wash. That leaves CO, AK, and IA. They need two of those three to gain the majority or, if they lose KS, could only pick up one of those and put the Independent in the position of deciding control. I suspect he would lean towards the D side, but it's not settled.
Moving on to 2016, however, we see that Republicans have a horrific electoral map:
Republicans are defending seats in PA, OH, IL, WI, NH, NC, and IA. Even if they have control after 2014, Democrats only need to pick up one or two of those to regain the majority. For their part, Democrats are not defending a single seat in a red state or a swing state. Other than Colorado, which during a presidential election is not likely to lean Republican, they're very likely to keep all of their seats. So the most likely situation after 2016 is a Democratic majority. It's doubtful that they take all of those seats, so a narrow Democratic majority is most likely.
Moving ahead to 2018 shows us that the map swings yet again agains the Democrats:
Only a few Republican seats are being defended, and almost all of those are in red states. Nevada is the exception, but it's not exactly blue. On the other hand, Democrats are defending seats in WV, VA, IN, FL, MT, ND, and MO. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2016 (and if the economy isn't booming), then the likely result is yet another swing in majority control in the Senate, this time back to the Republicans.
From all of this, it seems that the most likely result for the next three election cycles will be swings in the majority back and forth. If Democrats can somehow manage to hold their majority this year and rack up a lot of gains in 2016, then that could create a large enough buffer to ward off the 2018 election, which would result in a consistent Democratic majority. But that's only if they can keep the Senate this year, and right now it's looking like they only have about a 50% chance of doing that.
